Tropical Storm Jerry Gains Strength Set to Become Hurricane This Week

Tropical Storm Jerry formed over the central Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, marking the 10th named storm of a late-blooming hurricane season. Forecasters expect the storm to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday, continuing a season that has produced three hurricanes in just over two weeks.

As of Tuesday evening, Jerry had sustained winds of 50 mph and was located approximately 900 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued

Authorities have issued a tropical storm watch for several islands, including Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Barthélemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, and nearby islands. This watch means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in these areas within the next 48 hours.

Depending on its track, Jerry could bring rain and strong winds to these islands as it nears or passes north of the northern Leeward Islands later this week as a Category 1 hurricane.

Forecast and Intensity

Jerry could further intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Friday or Saturday as it passes east of Bermuda over open water. Despite its strengthening, Jerry is not expected to pose a threat to the U.S. mainland, as a cold front moving off the East Coast is likely to deflect the storm out to sea.

Late-Season Storms and Gulf Concerns

October brings more frequent East Coast cold fronts, which typically help steer storms away from the U.S. However, late-season storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean remain a concern due to their proximity to land and higher potential for dangerous impacts.

There is currently a low chance that a new system could form in the southwest Gulf later this week. More importantly, forecasters are watching a broader weather pattern expected to develop by mid-October. Known as the Central American Gyre, this rotating area of stormy weather in the western Caribbean is notorious for producing late-season storms. While it is too early to predict whether it will spawn a storm this year, scientists will continue monitoring the region.

Historically, four named storms form during October and November. Some hurricane seasons have a strong late-season finish, while others wind down earlier. Last year, seven storms formed during this period, whereas in 2023, only two developed, illustrating the variability of late-season hurricane activity.