The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for global renewable power growth by 2030, citing weaker prospects in the United States and China. Total renewable capacity is now projected to reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW), down from 5,500GW in last year’s forecast, putting the global goal of tripling renewable energy use by 2030 at risk.
Key factors include the early phase-out of US federal tax incentives under President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and China’s shift from guaranteed electricity prices to competitive auctions, which limit profits for renewable projects.
On a positive note, India is set to become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity expected to rise 2.5 times over the next five years. The Middle East, North Africa, and select European countries—including Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain—also show stronger growth prospects.
Solar panels drove roughly 80% of global renewable growth over the past five years, followed by wind, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy. However, offshore wind forecasts have been lowered due to policy changes, particularly in the US, which has delayed ongoing projects.
The IEA emphasized that increasing renewable capacity remains critical for energy diversification, security, and reducing fuel import dependency amid current geopolitical tensions.
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